In 2020, the Democratic Party’s Presidential nominee will have a real opportunity to flip Texas for the first time since 1976. The most recent polls show that three Democratic candidates — Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Beto O’Rourke — all lead Trump head-to-head in the Lone Star State.
This article will focus on two polls released on August 6, 2019, one by Emerson and one by University of Texas at Tyler.
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
Believe it or not, Bernie Sanders has arguably the most convincing lead over Trump in Texas. Sanders leads Trump by 2% in Emerson’s poll. That’s a four point swing in Sanders’s favor since late April.
According to the University of Texas at Tyler poll, Sanders has nearly a five point lead over Trump in Texas. That’s beyond the poll’s 2.4% margin of error.
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Like Sanders, Biden leads Trump by two points in the Emerson poll. That’s a 1% increase from his lead over Trump in April. Biden leads Trump by four points in the University of Texas at Tyler poll.
Unlike Sanders, Biden led Trump in an early June poll of Texas voters. Biden’s lead in that poll was 4%.
Beto O’Rourke vs. Donald Trump
O’Rourke has the largest lead head-to-head versus Trump, according to the University of Texas at Tyler poll. O’Rourke leads Trump by 6%, well beyond the poll’s margin of error.
However, O’Rourke didn’t fair as well as Sanders or Biden in Emerson’s poll. In fact, Emerson found that O’Rourke trails Trump by four percent, which is beyond the polls ~3% margin of error.
Many speculate that O’Rourke is best suited to flip Texas in 2020 considering that he represented the state in Congress and ran a competitive Senate campaign against Ted Cruz in 2018.
While that line of thinking is reasonable, it’s important to point out that Biden holds a commanding lead in the Texas Democratic primary.
What If Texas Goes Blue In 2020?
If Texas were to turn blue, that’s essentially game over for Donald Trump. If Hillary Clinton had theoretically flipped Texas in 2016, she would’ve finished with 270 Electoral votes.
Although the poll numbers look good for some Democrats at the moment (Trump still leads Warren, Harris, and Buttigieg), they probably shouldn’t get too carried away with flipping the state in 2020. No Democrat since Jimmy Carter has won Texas in a Presidential election, and Trump’s approval rating in Texas is higher than it is nationwide.
Do you think a Democrat will win Texas in 2020? Leave a comment below!