The New Hampshire Democratic Primary will take place on February 11, 2020. The state’s 24 pledged delegates will be allocated proportionally to candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote. New Hampshire also has nine superdelegates, who will be able to cast a vote during the second round of voting at the Democratic National Convention.
New Hampshire is a semi-closed primary, meaning registered Democrats and voters unaffiliated with a political party can vote.
Here are the latest polls out of New Hampshire. The aggregate percentages are an average of every poll conducted over the past six weeks. Every pollster is included in this table. Click the link next to each poll to view the full results.
|August 1–September 8||Average||19.7||19.7||19||11.3||4|
Analysis Of The Polls
It’s currently a three-way race in New Hampshire between Biden, Sanders, and Warren. Each candidate is polling around 19%. Pete Buttigieg isn’t far behind, and his recent surge in Iowa could be a sign of good things to come in New Hampshire. Evidence of this trend is already clear based on the results of the Quinnipiac poll.
One of the bigger surprises in New Hampshire right now is Tulsi Gabbard. Despite polling at less than two percent nationally, Gabbard has been able to stand out in New Hampshire, ranking fifth on aggregate. Her strong presence in New Hampshire could hurt Sanders’s chances of winning.
Gabbard’s polling boost came almost immediately after a public spat with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who suggested that the Russian government was “grooming” Gabbard for a third-party Presidential run. Gabbard has ruled out a third-party run on more than one occasion.
With such a close race among the top three candidates, the eventual winner of the Granite State probably won’t net a significant number of delegates, especially if three candidates reach the 15% threshold.
If the primary were tomorrow, Biden, Sanders, and Warren would all win approximately 8 delegates. That number could drop slightly if Buttigieg were to hit the 15% minimum threshold necessary to earn pledged delegates.
New Hampshire Democratic Primary History
In 2016, Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire Democratic primary with 60.4% of the vote. Polls leading up the the primary showed Sanders with a 54.5 – 41.2 lead over Hillary Clinton. The CNN/WMUR poll was the most accurate poll released the week of the primary, showing Sanders with a 61 – 35 lead over Clinton.
Despite this lopsided victory, Sanders only received the support of one New Hampshire superdelegate: Martha Fuller Clark. Raymond Buckley remained neutral. All other superdelegates from New Hampshire endorsed Hillary Clinton.
The last Democratic to win the Party’s nomination after winning the New Hampshire primary was John Kerry in 2004. The last Democratic to win the New Hampshire primary, the Party’s nomination, and the Presidential General Election was Bill Clinton in 1992.
Who do you think will win the New Hampshire Democratic primary in 2020? Leave a comment below!